This article describes how the IES electricity market forecasting tool, known as PROPHET, is used to model the National Electricity Market (NEM). PROPHET generates long term projections of wholesale electricity prices and dispatched generator outputs. Dispatch modelling can be used to investigate many uncertainties facing the NEM of the future, such as:
- How will additional coal generator retirements impact wholesale prices?
- To what extent will energy and pumped water storage participate in the evolving NEM?
- How will the energy produced from photovoltaic (PV) sources impact the wholesale price in the middle of the day?
- Will new transmission interconnectors lower wholesale prices?
Understanding the evolving NEM has never been more important for market participants, investors and policy makers.